"My old Kentucky home far away..." - Stephen Foster

***May 19, 2011 edit: I was close. Soldat was 3rd for most of the race at least. And was I right or was I right about the odds and the placement? The whole thing is rigged.










I really wish I was going to a Derby party in Louisville, KY today. If I was a betting woman, I'd put money on 2 horses:

 Soldat: 15-1 odds

and

 

  Archarcharch: 10-1 odds

 Here's my thing with picking a Derby winner. You'd think that the favorite horse to take it all would win. They obviously have the best track record, they've competed against most of the horses in the race at previous races before, they're usually one of the best bred in the whole world for crying out loud, but...somehow the Derby winner is NEVER the favorite. What the heck, right? It just doesn't add up. Seeing as I'm a skeptic, I happen to believe that most major sports are in bed with the mafia and other polluted political rings. If you think about it, more money is paid out on the dollar with a horse who wins with greater odds. And there you have it: never pick the favorite. EVER. Usually a horse right in the middle (odds and gate placement alike) will win. Soldat and Arch have pretty close-to-the-top average range odds, with 15 and 10-1. They've both proven to ride well in dirt, mud (which is just as important), and other terrain. And, with the 2011 favorite (Uncle Mo) not in the race anymore, everyone is saying that it's anyone's race...

If you've ever seen the movies Secretariat and Seabiscuit, you know how important a good story can be towards a horse's momentum going into a race. Arch has the story, and for that reason, if you really twisted my arm...I'd pick him.

So Happy Derby! May the best horse win.

(yeah right.)